USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2031
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/USDA-Agricultural-Projections-to-2031.pdf
Poultry
- Most poultry export growth will come from Brazil, the US, Europe and Thailand in that order.
- Brazil will remain the world’s largest chicken exporter for the next 10 years. Brazil may account for 32.5% of global export growth over the next decade, with shipments rising 19.6% to 5.2 million tonnes by 2031. US chicken exports could increase 13.9% to 4.3 million tonnes next decade. The EU is expected to grow poultry foreign trade by 15.9% to almost 2.9 million tonnes, while Thailand, favoured by its geographical location, should up by 31.7% to 1.4 million tons in the interim.
Poultry imports in Africa and the Middle East regions are expected to grow by 22.3% and 16.8%, respectively. By 2031, these regions combined will increase their poultry meat imports by 1 million tonnes.
In Mexico, despite production increasing, imports may rise faster. As a result, Mexico’s poultry meat imports will grow about 17.6% to nearly 1.3 million tonnes between 2023 and 2031. Poultry imports Central America and the Caribbean region could jump up 26.6% to 1.1 million tonnes by 2031.
The USDA points out that China is going to be a major importer of poultry, as consumption outpaces domestic production growth. China’s poultry imports will soar by 30.9%, reaching more than 1.2 million tonnes next decade.
With China’s poultry exports projected to reach a high of 23.4%, to 571,000 tonnes, net imports increase 40% to 218,000 tonnes, according to the projections.
Dairy
#dairy
Over half of the increase in total milk production is anticipated to come from India and Pakistan, which will jointly account for over 30% of world production (but will most just be consumed domestically?) in 2031.
China is expected to remain the most important importer of milk products despite a slight increase in domestic milk production. Over the medium term, the EU, New Zealand and the US will remain the key exporters of processed dairy product and are projected to jointly account for around 65% cheese, 71% WMP, 74% butter, and 80% SMP exports by 2031.