UK Meat prices have risen faster than prices of pb alts in recent years

• Generally, meat has not shown higher price volatility than other goods (though we only have historical data on limited goods, see Gilbert and Morgan, 2010)
• Price volatility in grain increases volatility of meat prices^[1]

Look here: https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Reducing-the-price-of-alternative-proteins_GFI_2022.pdf

Using : https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/exploringhowtheaveragepriceofindividualitemshaschangedinthelastyear/2023-05-03

Why is meat rising in price faster than plant foods?

It is not totally clear why meat prices are rising faster than plant foods, and likely due to a number of factors. What is illuminating is that the trend holds whether we compare the prices in 2023 to 2022, 2021, or any year back to 2018 where the ONS data begins. This means that it cannot be entirely driven by factors such as COVID19 or the Russian invasion of Ukraine (both are huge exporters of crops that we feed to animals like chickens), though these both surely play a role. Other possible explanations are loss of skilled migrant abbatoir workers due to Brexit, as well as rising fuel costs making transport more expensive.

A common theme is that meat prices are more vulnerable to 'supply shocks' than plant foods. The supply chains that run from farm to supermarket can be quite fragile. Not only does the industry have to contend with problems such as animal diseases (such as avian flu), they are also affected by problems in crop systems. This is because most farmed animals are fed crops, and lots of them. This means that many factors driving inflation of plant foods will also affect the prices of animal products. This makes it unsurprising that animal products show greater price increases than plant foods in the face of supply shocks. Kite Consulting attribute rising dairy milk prices to increase cost of cattle feed, caused by increased fertiliser costs, caused by increased gas prices! There are many ways this system can go wrong, and any problems in production can be passed onto consumers.

If this trend continues, meat and dairy prices may catch up to meat alternatives and non-dairy milks. This is significant, because

Other notes

According to Canada's Food Price Report, in 2021, Canada experienced climate change-related adverse weather effects, such as severe wildfires in British Columbia and drought conditions in the Prairies, that affected the prices of meat and bakery products.

This report finds that of the top 10 products that saw highest inflation in 2020-2021, 5 were meat. This was due to droughts, which may have been exacerbated due to climate change.

Official figures show the inflation rate for milk, cheese and eggs reached 31% in the year to January 2023, the fastest annual rise since comparable records began in 1989. (source). This was due to the surge in oil and gas pushing fertiliser upwards which makes farm animal feed up.

each cow getting through about 50kg a day of total mixed ration cattle feed, which contains a blend of ingredients including grass, maize, soya and wheat.

the industry also battles farmers: they protested in 2015 because supermarkets were not paying them enough, and many quit. This caused a surge in prices 2 years later. consumers have to eat this volatility.

Meat producers can even be affected by changes in the price of carbon dioxide gas, used to stun animals prior to slaughter.

Read: https://www.ey.com/en_uk/strategy/how-alternative-proteins-are-reshaping-meat-industries