• MFA Food sec MOC

The trend towards landless livestock systems, through (international) trade in feedstuff, increases interregional lnterdependencies throughout the world. With regards to food security this may increase vulnerabilities of many (developing) regions to world market price shocks.

Livestock may increase stability

Huchet-Bourdon (2011) found more price volatility in staple products such as wheat and rice compared with beef, dairy and sugar during a study period of 50 years. To some extent, livestock is “opportunistic”, absorbing surplus calories when food is plentiful and yielding value (e.g. through slaughter) when crops fail.

Livestock can generate revenue through trade

As an example, in 1996 Uruguay was recognized as being free of FMD and gained access to valuable trading markets. Uruguay filled export quotas to the United States and received higher world prices than domestic prices, resulting in additional annual revenues estimated at USD $20 million.^[1]

Volatile markets

• The global food system is complex, made up of an estimated 216,000 trade links (Carr et al., 2016).
• The global food system is evolving towards a "stable yet fragile" system (Puma et al., 2015): when individual countries suffer random shocks to their food supply, international trade ensures that every maintains a stable food supply. However, the world is becoming increasingly vulnerable to shocks that are more targeted or systematic. These types of shocks include droughts and flooding exacerbated by climate change, or when a countries engage in trade wars.
• International food prices can swing wildly due to factors such as climate change, energy prices, demand for biofuels, trade policies and speculation in financial markets. In years such as 2008, 2011 and 2022 food prices worldwide have increased by as high as 45% Shockingly, factors that have nothing to do with food systems can increase food prices and push people into food security. In 2008, the great financial crisis caused many investors to avoid real estate assets in instead bet on changes in agricultural commodity prices, causing those prices to fluctuate and increase.

Climate change

For example, risk of dairy cattle thermal heat stress is projected to increase in the next 30 to 50 years by over 1000% in the South West, the region with the most dairy cattle UK governmental food security review, 2021

Diseases in farm animals cause economic shocks

References