How would reduced demand for ASFs in HICs affect food security
Effects on LMICs
- Mason-D'Croz et al., 2022 If 60% of US beef consumption was replaced with beef alts, they predicted that we'd see an increase of 21% in US beef exports. A 10% replacement would increase beef exports by 2.5%.
Effects on domestic food security
- This is highly dependent on why ASF consumption goes down
- It seems reasonable to assume that reductions in ASF consumption would go hand in hand with increasing consumption of animal product alternatives, presumably because they taste similar and are at similar points of convenience and price. As such domestic food security will depend on:
- Whether alternatives are likely to be more nutritious than the ASFs they replace (this is likely, e.g. comparing beyond burger to beef burger) (food utilisation)
- A rapid reduction in ASF consumption could bring food instability among workers in animal agriculture and farming who do not quickly retrain. However, any change is likely to be slow giving them a chance to adapt. Point out initiatives for farmers to transition to plant foods. A small % of the population in most HICs are farmers and the percentage of those that cannot retrain or transition is likely to represent a fraction of a fraction of the population.
- Potential for Improved nutrition through converting monocrops (previously used for animal feed) into a variety of plant foods (improves dietary diversification).
- Improved health in areas where factory farming is dominant (i.e. North Carolina and pig CAFOs).
- Assuming similar price, ASF-alts will be good / bad for food security if they show greater/lower price volatility (food stability)
- Speculative: cultivated meat may allow food manufacturers to be more spread out and localised, improving food sovereignty