Springmann et al., 2018

Springmann, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Robinson, S., Wiebe, K., Godfray, H. C. J., Rayner, M., & Scarborough, P. (2018). Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat: A modelling study on optimal tax levels and associated health impacts. PloS one, 13(11), e0204139.

abstract

Background

The consumption of red and processed meat has been associated with increased mortality from chronic diseases, and as a result, it has been classified by the World Health Organization as carcinogenic (processed meat) and probably carcinogenic (red meat) to humans. One policy response is to regulate red and processed meat consumption similar to other carcinogens and foods of public health concerns. Here we describe a market-based approach of taxing red and processed meat according to its health impacts.

Methods

We calculated economically optimal tax levels for 149 world regions that would account for (internalize) the health costs associated with ill-health from red and processed meat consumption, and we used a coupled modelling framework to estimate the impacts of optimal taxation on consumption, health costs, and non-communicable disease mortality. Health impacts were estimated using a global comparative risk assessment framework, and economic responses were estimated using international data on health costs, prices, and price elasticities.

Findings

The health-related costs to society attributable to red and processed meat consumption in 2020 amounted to USD 285 billion (sensitivity intervals based on epidemiological uncertainty (SI), 93–431), three quarters of which were due to processed meat consumption. Under optimal taxation, prices for processed meat increased by 25% on average, ranging from 1% in low-income countries to over 100% in high-income countries, and prices for red meat increased by 4%, ranging from 0.2% to over 20%. Consumption of processed meat decreased by 16% on average, ranging from 1% to 25%, whilst red meat consumption remained stable as substitution for processed meat compensated price-related reductions. The number of deaths attributable to red and processed meat consumption decreased by 9% (222,000; SI, 38,000–357,000), and attributable health costs decreased by 14% (USD 41 billion; SI, 10–57) globally, in each case with greatest reductions in high and middle-income countries.

Interpretation

Including the social health cost of red and processed meat consumption in the price of red and processed meat could lead to significant health and environmental benefits, in particular in high and middle-income countries. The optimal tax levels estimated in this study are context-specific and can complement the simple rules of thumb currently used for setting health-motivated tax levels.

Notes

In high income countries, it found, red meat would need to be 20% more expensive and processed meat, like bacon, sausages and jerky, would need to be more than double its current price to account for the health costs associated with their consumption.

We estimated an economic burden associated with red and processed meat consumption of USD 285 billion (SI, 93–431) in 2020, which represented 0.3% of the total health expenditure estimated for that year. Our estimate included both direct costs (healthcare expenditure, health service utilization, expenditure on medication) and indirect costs (opportunity costs of informal care, productivity costs due to mortality and morbidity) to provide an estimate of the full health costs of red and processed meat consumption to society. On average, indirect costs represented half to two thirds of the total cost of illness for CHD, stroke, and cancer, but no estimates of indirect costs were available for T2DM (diabetes). Focusing only on the direct cost component would roughly half our estimate. sing disease associations
for total cancer (instead of colorectal cancer only) and cardiovascular disease (instead of CHD and stroke only) would roughly double the health and economic burden

In order to account for the health costs attributable to red and processed meat by adjusting prices, red meat prices would have to increase by more than 20% in high-income countries, and processed meat prices would have to more than double for those countries. Price changes in upper middle-income countries would amount to 7% and 47% for red meat and processed meat, respectively.