Predicting the Demographics of Plant Based Meat Customers

This report does not contain an executive summary. Here is a summary of the key points:

• Objective: The study aims to predict the demographics of Plant-Based Meat (PBM) customers and understand PBM's potential to replace conventional meat.
• Data Source: The research utilizes proprietary data from a single nationwide grocery store chain from 2016-2019, including purchase histories and demographic information for 134,167 households that bought PBM and 60,269 that did not.
• PBM Customer Profile: Compared to non-buyers, households that purchase PBM are more likely to be younger, have higher incomes, and shop in more politically liberal (Clinton-heavy) areas.
• PBM Buyers Still Eat Meat: While PBM buyers purchased less meat than non-buyers before trying PBM, they are generally not vegetarians. They also purchased about three times as many traditional meat replacements (veggie burgers, tofu) as non-buyers.
• Low Rebuy Rate: The study found that less than one-third of customers who tried PBM purchased it again within the following three months, indicating a challenge in converting trial users into regular purchasers.
• Rebuy Predictors: Households that consistently rebought PBM were those already interested in meat replacements. Prior purchases of meat and dairy alternatives, tofu, and seafood were positive predictors for rebuying. In contrast, prior purchases of milk, bacon, beef, and pork were negative predictors.
• Failure to Attract Heavy Meat Eaters: The research suggests that PBM has not yet succeeded in attracting the heaviest meat consumers. Even as PBM gained mainstream attention (e.g., the launch of the Impossible Whopper), the new customers it attracted were still not from the core meat-eating demographic.
• No Evidence of Substitution: Using randomly timed regional price promotions, the study found that putting PBM on sale had no detectable effect on the demand for ground beef or chicken, suggesting PBM is not yet acting as a direct substitute for meat in consumers' purchasing decisions.
• Overall Conclusion: The author concludes that the findings are "not terribly encouraging" for the hope that PBM will transition meat-eaters away from meat in the near future. While the market is young, the data suggests it will take much longer for PBM to truly compete with conventional meat than proponents have predicted.