Pais et al., 2020
Abstract: With the growing population and increasing purchasing power, the sustainability of the food sector is questioned as environmental externalities derive from consumption, mainly the emission of greenhouse gases, which contribute to climate change. Academic literature has suggested strategies to efficiently manage food consumption, but one of the main implications is to reduce meat consumption. Such a reduction would mitigate climate change and other environmental externalities as well as reduce health-related problems. However, the livestock sector is also a relevant economic sector for the subsistence of any economy. Therefore, this reduction could threaten economic growth. Following a sample of 14 European high-income countries over more than four decades, the impact of food consumption on economic growth is assessed. Results suggest that both meat and plant-based consumption contribute positively to economic growth. Consequently, a reduction in meat consumption could have a negative impact
on the economy. However, strategies to both reduce meat consumption and promote economic growth are discussed in line with the results, with plant-based foods as an efficient option to solve the dilemma. Furthermore, specific strategies for both the supply and the demand side, education on food production and consumption are recommended, particularly in primary schools. Children could learn about healthy and sustainable dietary habits that would not hamper economic growth, as these should be the seeds of future consumption habits.
A 50% decrease in meat consumption could reduce GDP by 4%. Short term this is a big shock but long term might be somewhat managable. They found that each 1% increase in meat consumption caused an GDP increase of 0.09 or 0.08 depending on model. Increasing plant food consumption resulted in 0.08 and 0.06% GDP increase depending on model. Fish consumption was only 0.04 and 0.04.