Gilbert and Morgan, 2010
basically, Though we only have a limited data on other products, it does not seem that in the last 40 years meat shows more price volatility than non meat foods in the US
The high food prices experienced over recent years have led to the widespread view that food price volatility has increased. However, volatility has generally been lower over the two most recent decades than previously. Variability over the most recent period has been high but, with the important exception of rice, not out of line with historical experience. There is weak evidence that grains price volatility more generally may be increasing but it is too early to say.
| -- | 1970–2009 | 1970–1989 | 1990–2009 | equality test | (p-value) | -- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| beverages plus sugar (%) | ||||||
| cocoa | 23.1 | 24.8 | 21.1 | 1.38 | (0.7) | significant fall |
| coffee | 25.5 | 25.4 | 25.7 | 1.03 | (42.6) | insignificant rise |
| sugar | 35.0 | 42.2 | 25.7 | 2.69 | (<0.1) | significant fall |
| tea | 27.1 | 27.6 | 26.5 | 1.08 | (26.6) | insignificant fall |
| grains (%) | ||||||
| maize (corn) | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.2 | 1.02 | (44.2) | insignificant fall |
| rice | 21.1 | 18.9 | 23.3 | 1.52 | (0.1) | significant rise |
| sorghum | 20.4 | 20.2 | 20.6 | 1.05 | (36.1) | insignificant rise |
| soya beans | 22.4 | 24.9 | 19.5 | 1.64 | (<0.1) | significant fall |
| wheat | 20.0 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 1.11 | (21.2) | insignificant rise |
| fats and oils (%) | ||||||
| coconut oil | 32.4 | 30.9 | 34.0 | 1.21 | (7.0) | insignificant rise |
| groundnut oil | 21.8 | 26.0 | 16.4 | 2.52 | (<0.1) | significant fall |
| palm oil | 28.2 | 30.4 | 25.8 | 1.40 | (0.5) | significant fall |
| soya bean oil | 22.8 | 25.9 | 19.2 | 1.83 | (<0.1) | significant fall |
| sunflower oil | 27.2 | 25.8 | 28.6 | 1.23 | (5.8) | insignificant rise |
| meats and fish (%) | ||||||
| beef | 15.0 | 15.9 | 14.0 | 1.29 | (2.4) | significant fall |
| lamb | 15.3 | 17.4 | 12.7 | 1.88 | (<0.1) | significant fall |
| fishmeal | 22.2 | 26.1 | 17.3 | 2.27 | (<0.1) | significant fall |
| fresh fruit (%) | ||||||
| bananas | 56.1 | 45.2 | 65.5 | 2.10 | (<0.1) | significant rise |
| oranges | 46.0 | 46.9 | 45.1 | 1.08 | (27.6) | insignificant fall |