Forecasts estimate limited cultured meat production through 2050 (Rethink Priorities)
We (Neil and Linch) developed forecasting questions around cultured meat reaching annual production volume sold in metric tons (>100,000, >1M, >10M, >50M) by a certain year (2031, 2036, 2051) in addition to hypothesized signposts of progress (funding, researchers, input costs, food service sales, and public support). For context, the annual production of conventional meat (excluding seafood) in 2018 was 346M metric tons and the annual production of seafood in 2015 was 200M metric tons.
Here we present an initial set of forecasts from a panel of paid forecasters. We plan to expand forecasting on similar questions in a Metaculus tournament so that we can see how forecasts are affected by news of supposedly important breakthroughs.
Despite some variation, the majority of probabilities were for low production volumes. The aggregated probabilities from our panel include a 54% probability that less than 100,000 metric tons of cultured meat (where >51% of the “meat” is produced directly from animal cells) will be produced and sold at any price in a 12-month period before the end of 2051.
Aggregated probabilities of cultured meat production targets
| Metric tons | 2031 | 2036 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|
| >100,000 | 15% | 22% | 46% |
| >1M | 3% | 9% | 31% |
| >10M | Not asked | 3% | 18% |
| >50M | Not asked | Not asked | 9% |
These results suggest that rather than pursuing strategies that assume a small nudge can make cultured meat widely available in the near term, there may be more benefit in ensuring long-term support for the industry or in alternatives to cultured meat.
Engineering new types of bioreactors, building out supply chains of key ingredients, securing broad political support for public funding, and establishing a pipeline of researchers seem promising ways to nudge production trajectories upwards over a timeframe of a century, not decades.
This report is about describing uncertainty and models, not justifying any specific probability. The main cruxes of disagreement appear to stem from beliefs in how often technology can replicate and outperform biological systems, choice of reference classes, and how much to anchor based on the estimates in the Humbird (2020) techno-economic analysis.