Enahoro et al., (2019)
Enahoro, D., Mason-D’Croz, D., Mul, M., Rich, K. M., Robinson, T. P., Thornton, P., & Staal, S. S. (2019). Supporting sustainable expansion of livestock production in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: Scenario analysis of investment options. Global food security, 20, 114-121.
Abstract
- Scenario analysis was used to assess the implications for Asia and Africa.
- Expanding livestock production offers key gains to human welfare in both regions.
- Investments to improve animal productivity and markets enhance nutrition and incomes.
- Large scope exists to reduce GHG emissions intensities and agricultural water use.
Growth in demand for livestock-derived foods will likely remain strong in low- and middle- income countries, fueling concerns about expansion of production and the management of natural resources. Recent research suggests that the envisioned negative effects are not inevitable and that benefits such as improved food security can be enhanced. Targeted investments to the livestock sector could help make these happen. We use scenario analysis to explore this question, assessing the impacts of selected investment options in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Our results show that boosting livestock productivity primarily in these two regions could improve food security and producer incomes while limiting greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural water usage. Market-improving investments with similar welfare gains lead to environmental impacts that necessitate complementary investments.
Own notes
modelled outcomes for sub saharan africa and South asia. Using a model that predicts increase in demand they expect a doubling of beef dairy and poultry production in both of these regions, driven by increased numbers of animals and increased yields per animal.
They model hypothetical futures:
- MARKETS: if the region invested more in improving small holder's access to markets, reduced transportation costs
- HIGHYLD: investments in projects that improved breeds of dairy in (East Africa, India); of poultry and small ruminants (East and West Africa); Diagnostics and vaccine delivery to cattle and small ruminants (East and West Africa); Fodder development in South Asia, across Africa.
- This would achieve increased average livestock yields by up to 20% in South Asia and 30% in sub-Saharan Africa
- REGIONYLD: Targets the highest increases to South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa with medium levels of increase in Latin America and East Asia
Generally, HIGHYLD and REGIONYLD had small negative effects, and MARKETS small positive effects (5 to 10%) on numbers of all meat animals in bother regions. Basically the different development strategies would have minor effects relative to what's probably going to happen.
Notably, both regions would experience large increases in imports of beef under the two YLD scenarios. Africa would experience large increases (32-43%) in feed demand under the YLD scenarios, whilst Asia would be unaffected
Between no and 2050 livestock producer incomes are expected to double in SSA triple in SA, with a ~10% further increase under the MARKET scenario and in Africa under the REGIONYLD scenario. Regardless of strategy, calories of animal foods are expected to expected to increase 66% or so in SA and ~80% in Africa
Crucially non of the strategies seemed to improve the "share at risk of hunger %", "share of underweight among children", "total surface and ground water use", of methane emissions.
Their simulation found that simply improving market access would not incentivise countries to adopt yield enhancing practices