CAP at the Crossroads (Foodrise)

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Executive Summary

The EU is at a crossroads – poised to make crucial decisions on the 2028–2034 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), one of the biggest allocations of the EU budget worth billions of euros. This provides a unique opportunity for the EU to support a transition to healthy sustainable diets – a huge economic opportunity with multiple benefits for EU food security, climate mitigation, nature and health. The alternative is to continue to waste billions of euros in subsidies propping up a broken status quo.

This report presents data showing that huge volumes of EU taxpayers’ money are being used to subsidise unsustainable livestock production and promote meat and dairy products to EU citizens. This distorts competition and creates an unfair advantage for a model of food production which harms European health and the environment. Staggeringly, the estimated €39 billion in Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies spent on animal-sourced foods in 2020 makes up nearly a quarter (23%) of the EU’s total budget of €168.7 billion for 2020.¹ Overall, animal-sourced foods received an estimated three-quarters (77%) of EU CAP subsidies in 2020 – over 3 times more than plant-based foods.²

This report presents in detail, for the first time, the value of CAP subsidy payments distributed to individual food types in 2020.ª Based on our analysis, we estimate that in 2020:

• Meat and dairy received over 10 times more CAP subsidies than fruit and vegetable production, and more than 16 times more than cereal production.
• Beef and lamb received over 580 times more CAP subsidies than legumes – and pork received nearly 240 times more.
• Dairy received 554 times more CAP subsidies than nuts and seeds.

Figure 1: Volume of EU CAP subsidies going to beef and lamb vs. legumes in 2020 (euros), on a consumption basis
(Image depicts a large grid of orange dots labeled "€8 billion" representing subsidies for beef and lamb, next to a much smaller grid of green dots labeled "€14 million" for legumes. Text overlay reads: "Beef and lamb received over 580 times more CAP subsidies than legumes")

Figure 2: Volume of EU CAP subsidies going to dairy vs. nuts and seeds in 2020 (euros), on a consumption basis
(Image depicts a very large grid of orange dots labeled "€16 billion" representing subsidies for dairy, next to a tiny grid of mixed nut/seed icons labeled "€29 million." Text overlay reads: "Dairy received an estimated 500 times more CAP subsidies than nuts and seeds")

This system is fuelling climate change and damaging our health: animal-sourced foods are estimated to cause between 81-86% of the embodied greenhouse gas emissions from EU food production,³ whilst only supplying an estimated 32% of calories and 64% of protein consumed in the EU.⁴ Diet-related disease linked to animal-sourced food consumption in the EU cost an estimated €452 billion in 2022.⁵

The meat and dairy industry – increasingly dominated by large corporations such as JBS, Nestlé, FrieslandCampina and Danish Crown – pushes the narrative that any attempt to challenge its dominance amounts to policymakers "telling people what to eat”. But the truth is that EU policymakers already shape how Europeans eat, particularly through subsidies. Powerful agribusiness groups have spent millions of euros lobbying the EU to keep these massive subsidies for industrial-scale livestock production,⁶ and block the transition towards healthy sustainable diets.⁷

But there is hope. The 2024 Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture resulted in a breakthrough agreement between farming groups, civil society, businesses and academics, when participating groups unanimously adopted its final report.⁸ The agreed text clearly stated that a “shift towards balanced diets that are healthier and more sustainable is essential".⁹ It noted "a trend in the EU towards a reduction of consumption of certain animal-based products and an increased interest in plant-based proteins" and recommended "it is crucial to support this trend by re-balancing towards plant-based options and helping consumers to embrace the transition".¹⁰

Indeed, many European retailers and catering businesses are beginning to shift to more plant-based foods to meet their sustainability commitments, and in response to changing consumer eating habits.¹¹ Europe is already a rapidly emerging leader in plant-based innovation – the European Plant-Based Food and Beverage Market is projected to grow by over 50% by 2030.¹² With support this could be accelerated – alternative proteins have potential to add an estimated €111 billion per year to the EU economy and support 414,000 high-quality jobs by 2040.¹³ This growth in plant-based foods presents an enormous economic opportunity for European producers. Europe has the potential to reduce reliance on imports, and lead the world in plant-based growth and innovation.

The case has never been stronger for accelerating the transition towards more plant-rich diets. In 2025, the EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy, Sustainable, and Just Food Systems provided the most comprehensive global scientific evaluation of food systems to date, created by scientists in over 35 countries over six continents.¹⁴ It identifies food systems as the largest contributor to exceeding five planetary boundaries – including land system change, biosphere integrity, freshwater change, biogeochemical flows, and climate change – and that even if a global energy transition away from fossil fuels occurs, food systems will put the world in breach of the Paris Climate agreement, which aims to limit global mean surface temperature rise to 1.5°C.¹⁵

The EAT-Lancet Commission puts forward the most up-to-date template for sustainable healthy diets: the updated Planetary Health Diet, which is a plant-rich diet with moderate amounts of animal-sourced foods and limited added sugars, saturated fats, and salt, which supports optimal health outcomes within planetary boundaries, and can be adapted to different contexts and cultures.¹⁶ It highlights that food system transformation including adoption of the Planetary Health Diet could result in more than $5 trillion in savings globally per year.¹⁷

To achieve this, a key EAT-Lancet Commission recommendation is to repurpose existing agricultural subsidies – many of which currently do not have public benefit and are skewed towards meat and dairy production¹⁸ – to promote dietary change and public goods such as health and environmental benefits.¹⁹ Calls are growing for agricultural subsidies to be reformed to support a shift to more sustainable healthy diets and reduced livestock numbers – including from the World Bank,²⁰ the EU’s Group of Chief Scientific Advisors,²¹ and the European Court of Auditors.²²

Aligning closer with the Planetary Health Diet would have enormous benefits for the EU’s farmers and citizens:

• Farm incomes: If Europeans shifted to high adherence to the Planetary Health Diet, agricultural incomes in the EU would increase by an estimated 5.4% on average by 2030 and 36.2% by 2050.²³
• Food security: A 2022 study projected that adoption of the Planetary Health Diet in the EU and UK would enable more land previously used to grow animal feed to be used to grow food for direct human consumption, almost compensating for all production deficits as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.²⁴
• Emissions: The adoption of the Planetary Health Diet in 54 high-income countries could reduce agricultural production emissions by an estimated 61%, and could in addition sequester the equivalent of an estimated 14 years of current global agricultural emissions through nature restoration on spared land.²⁵
• Health: It is estimated that up to 19–63% of deaths and up to 10–39% of cancers in Europe could be prevented by adoption of the Planetary Health Diet.²⁶ ᵇ
• Fertiliser and soils: Aligning EU diets with the Planetary Health Diet has potential to reduce EU fertiliser use by nearly one-quarter (23.4%).²⁷ Halving European meat and dairy consumption could lead to an estimated 40% lower nitrogen emissions.²⁸
• Air pollution: Reductions in European meat and dairy consumption would lead to lower levels of air pollution associated with an estimated 9-21% decrease in premature mortality in Europe – saving an estimated 20,000-44,000 lives per year.²⁹

The EU, driven particularly by the rise of the far-right and agribusiness lobbying, is currently moving in the wrong direction – weakening existing environmental measures contained in the CAP, backtracking on the breakthrough Strategic Dialogue, and dismantling sustainability legislation in the name of “simplification”. But the need for ambition has never been more important – EU policymakers must urgently change course, and embrace the many opportunities of a transition to healthy sustainable diets.

The Strategic Dialogue provides a good template for action, which has already been agreed by a broad range of EU stakeholders, and should be foundational to EU CAP reform. It recommends an EU Action Plan for Plant-based Foods covering the whole supply chain from farmers to consumers,³⁰ and an Agri-food Just Transition Fund which can support livestock farmers to embrace the transition, through financial support and training.³¹

We thus recommend that EU policymakers:

• Introduce a Plant-Based Action Plan to promote plant-based foods across the supply chain, from the producer to consumer.
• End the use of EU funds for the promotion and marketing of meat and dairy immediately.
• Introduce an Agri-food Just Transition Fund to support livestock farmers through a just transition to lower livestock numbers, more nature restoration, and more plant-based food production, rooted in agroecological food systems and food sovereignty.
• Rebalance CAP payments to primarily support diversification into more plant-based food production for direct human consumption.
• Provide support for rewetting of peatlands, rewilding of grasslands and restoration of a mosaic of biodiverse woodlands, on appropriate land – to be identified through a joined-up land use strategy.

Footnotes from Executive Summary:
ª Foodrise analysis was based on the underlying dataset from Kortleve et al (2025), generously provided by researchers at the University of Leiden. Figures are calculated on a consumption basis – so subsidies for crops fed to animals are counted towards animal sourced-foods. For instance, estimates for subsidies to beef and lamb includes estimated subsidies to animal feed used to produce beef and lamb.
ᵇ In a 20-year risk period.