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Appetite for change - why the UK should lead the emerging alternative proteins market (Green Alliance)

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Appetite for change: Why the UK should lead the emerging alternative proteins market

Even under the least optimistic scneario, the global market for Alt proteins could be worth £226 billion by 2035. Green Alliance estimates that with the right combination of targeted investmnets. and regulation, the UK industry could be worth up to 6.8 billion pounds annually and create 25,000 jobs by 2035.

A thriving UK sector offers high productivity jobs not only in research, manufacturing, and production but also in farming. At least four thousand of the potential twenty-five thousand jobs created could be in traditional farming and food production.

The UK has several sources of competitive advantage, including:

  1. Some of the world's highest food quality and safety standards. This means that if companies develop products in the UK that meet these standards, they will be readily saleable across the global market.
  2. Significant consumer demand for alternative protein products
  3. A strong science base
    1. The University of Bath, for example, houses an established research centre directly tied to the production of alternative proteins. Other projects include the universities of Cambridge, Newcastle, Manchester, and Aston.
    2. Further, some of the processes used to create alternative proteins are very similar to those used in the pharmaceutical and chemical industries, which the UK already has relative strengths in. There is already a ready pool of existing skills and experience that can be employed in this industry.
  4. A burgeoning domestic industry to build upon

Other countries are racing to take the lead in this emerging industry, often motivated by the food security it will help to provide. Without intervention, it is likely that most of the alternative protein products bought in Britain will be made elsewhere. The most profitable food is also the least healthy, and venture capital-funded alternative protein startups are being forced into the junk food cycle in which they profit quickly by making high-fat, high-salt, and high-sugar foods. It does not have to be this way. A UK industrial strategy for alternative proteins could publicly fund nutritional research to develop healthier products than those they replace.

If the UK has aspirations to be a major market for development, it should invest £250m in nascent research and production clusters in Teesside and the Golden Triangle centered on Cambridge, Oxford, and London. These clusters should also be developed to link up UK farmers, crop scientists, and producers to expand the supply chain.

Lifecycle assessments of commercial-scale cultivated meat suggest it could become cost-competitive by 2030. See reference six.

Plant crops use 15% of agricultural land yet produce 68% of the UK calories. **

The £125 million recommended in the National Food Strategy to support the industry with 50 million for facilities in a single commercial cluster and £75 million for grants to start-ups. This report recommends that the UK should commit a minimum of £250 million.

The Canadian Protein Industry Supercluster is a good model to follow as it connects farmers and suppliers directly with producers. See reference 30.

They're scenarios

Scenario one is business as usual, scenario two assumes additional investment and breakthroughs in innovation, and scenario three assumes fast innovation coupled with a more supportive regulatory environment.

Even under business as usual, the research shows that alternative proteins could be 11% of the global protein market by 2035. More technological innovation could increase this to 16%, whilst the combination of innovation and supportive policy and regulatory environment could see 22% of global protein consumption replaced by alternatives in 2035. See reference 14.

The UK market remains moderately competitive with some larger players already emerging. It is valued at around £225 million with a projected compound annual growth rate of between 4-7% over the coming decade. See references 15 and 16. Recent sales trends suggest significant opportunities for the UK with 21% growth in plant-based products sold in Europe since 2020. See reference 17.

The fermented protein market is less well developed, but the UK is already an industry leader with Quorn being one of the most established companies globally.

An Oxford Economic Analysis projects that the UK market will grow to between £850m and £1.7bn by 2030. See reference 20. For context, this is roughly what people spend on coffee from UK coffee shops every year.

See Reference 24 for job creation including farming and manufacturing. Importantly, job creation in alternative proteins is distributed around the country and is likely to be concentrated in rural regions with the value added accruing locally.

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