Advocating for 60-40 plant-animal Protein Sales Ratios by 2040 (Ambitious Impact)

This report contains a summary, which is reproduced exactly below.

Advocating for 60:40 plant:animal Protein Sales Ratios by 2040 / Summary

Description
This intervention aims to improve climate change and animal welfare outcomes by encouraging supermarkets in high-income countries to commit to selling a higher percentage of total protein sales from plant-based sources. Increasing plant-based protein sales while keeping protein volume sold constant would simultaneously reduce emissions and reduce the number of animals farmed to meet consumer demand for protein. The proposed charity would advocate for protein sales ratio commitments (i.e., ensuring that a certain percentage of protein sales are from plants) by a target year by conducting corporate campaigns and providing technical assistance to supermarkets to encourage consumer purchasing of plant-based protein.

Counterfactual impact
Cost-effectiveness analysis: We modeled the cost-effectiveness of a charity advocating for increased plant-based protein sales ratios in our top target country based on our geographic assessment, Australia, aiming to shift the national protein ratio to 60:40 (plant-to-animal) by 2040. Our analysis suggests the intervention could be highly cost-effective, costing $0.21 per tonne CO2 equivalents averted and saving 153 Suffering-Adjusted Days (SADs) per dollar. Cost estimates include fixed and variable expenses for staffing, corporate campaigns, and randomized controlled trials, while impact estimates are based on national consumption and emissions data across seven major animal products.

Scale this charity could reach: Supermarkets account for a majority (>90%) of food sales in high-income countries (USDA, 2025). If the majority of supermarkets in Australia commit to a 60:40 plant-to-animal protein ratio, the intervention could avert 53 million tonnes of CO2 emissions and 1.7 billion SADs by the year 2040.

Potential for success
Robustness of evidence: 13 supermarkets in the Netherlands with a total market share greater than 90% have committed to shifting toward plant-based protein sales, but early data suggests progress is slow—these retailers increased plant-based shares by just 1.3 percentage points in a year, leaving them off track to meet 2030 targets. Supermarkets outside of the Netherlands are also starting to make commitments. Evidence shows that interventions like price parity, promotions, and changes to the food environment can boost plant-based sales. However, it is currently unclear whether these interventions will be sufficient to reach these sales ratio targets. Despite these uncertainties, the harms of animal farming—including severe animal suffering and high greenhouse gas emissions—are well documented. Replacing animal products with plant-based alternatives remains a promising, low-risk intervention, though its long-term effectiveness at displacing meat consumption requires further study.

Theory of Change: We modeled a theory of change for a charity that advocates for supermarkets to make plant-based protein sales ratio commitments. The theory of change assumes that a shift in the supply and marketing of protein products—enabled through retailer commitments—can lead to large-scale reductions in demand for animal products. This, in turn, improves farmed animal welfare, mitigates emissions, and shifts norms about protein consumption.